“Ukraine’s 10-Point ‘Peace Formula’: Will it Bring an End to the War with Russia?”

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Ukraine is gearing up to present its peace plan for ending the war with Russia to allied national security advisors in Switzerland. The country hopes to gain international support for its 10-point “Peace Formula” in order to increase pressure on Russia to agree to Kyiv’s conditions for ending hostilities. However, experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of peace plans and future talks at this stage of the conflict, as both sides are still actively engaged in fighting and neither has the upper hand.

No sign of political resolution

Ukraine’s peace formula prioritizes the withdrawal of all Russian troops from its territory and the restoration of its territorial integrity before Russia’s invasion two years ago. It also includes the release of Ukrainian prisoners, nuclear safety, and food and energy security. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy plans to use the World Economic Forum in Davos as a platform to garner support for the peace formula.

While Ukraine’s Western partners have expressed their support for Kyiv, the future of military aid from the U.S. and Europe remains uncertain. The recent failure of a highly anticipated counteroffensive has raised concerns about the effectiveness of further military aid. The war continues to rage in southern and eastern Ukraine, with Russian forces preventing significant advances by Ukrainian forces.

Both sides have suffered significant casualties, with hundreds of thousands of troops estimated to have been killed or wounded. Despite this, neither Russia nor Ukraine seems willing to consider a political resolution at this time. Experts believe that going into negotiations without the upper hand in a conflict can be disadvantageous, and neither side wants to make concessions.

‘Red lines’ firmly drawn

Both Russia and Ukraine have expressed their desire to end the war on their own terms. Even the idea of a ceasefire is controversial, as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy believes it would only give Russia the opportunity to regroup and rearm. The Kremlin has stated that it sees no basis for peace talks and has dismissed Kyiv’s peace plan as an “absurd process” because it excludes Russia.

The main obstacle to peace talks is the issue of territorial integrity. Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian regions and its subsequent “Russification” of those territories make it difficult to imagine Moscow relinquishing what it considers to be Russian territory. For Ukraine, accepting the loss of these regions would be seen as a Russian victory and a threat to its sovereignty.

While Ukraine’s international partners continue to support the country militarily, there is growing pressure for a diplomatic solution. However, ceding territory is not an option for Ukraine’s leadership, as it would be politically unpopular and undermine international law. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy would likely face backlash and potentially be ousted if he agreed to give away territory.

Overall, the path to peace in Ukraine remains uncertain. While Ukraine is seeking international support for its peace plan, experts believe that negotiations are unlikely to be successful at this stage of the conflict. Both sides are determined to achieve their goals on the battlefield rather than through diplomacy. The war continues to take a toll on both sides, with no end in sight.