The Tug-of-War for Global Supremacy: US vs. China
According to a recent Gallup poll, the global alignment landscape tilts towards the United States as Democrats occupy the White House. This preference has consistently manifested since 2007, with the Republican executive’s traditionally encountering a “net approval disadvantage.”
The Biden Boost
In 2023, a significant 48% of countries favored the US over China, with only 21% endorsing the latter. Moreover, the US has seen an impressive 22% alignment rate, the highest since 2009. This surge in support coincided with Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021, reversing the trend that saw China gain favor during the Trump administration.
Party Politics and Global Perception
Gallup’s findings suggest a potential correlation between US influence and the political affiliations of its presidents. Similar shifts occurred during the eras of George Bush and Barack Obama, showcasing how the political landscape in Washington reflects on the global stage.
The Biden administration’s “bounce-back” suggests the US’s “net approval advantage” over China is resilient, particularly among strongly aligned nations. While China made transient country gains during the Trump years, these were mostly in the “weakly aligned” category.
A Tug-of-War for Influence
Despite the recent US resurgence, both the US and China face a trend of disillusionment globally. Since 2017, more countries have disapproved of their leadership than approved, reaching a peak of 48% in 2020 under the Trump administration.
While this disapproval has declined under Biden, it remains twice as high as it was during most of Obama’s tenure. Gallup attributes this to a growing dissatisfaction with global power dynamics.
The US has lost relative favorability in Russia and some African nations but gained ground in countries impacted by the Ukraine war, such as Poland and several Asian states. However, in Southeast Asia, where the US gained favorability in countries like the Philippines, a recent survey indicates that most countries are likely to side with China in a potential geopolitical confrontation.
Germany: A Surprising Leader
Interestingly, Gallup’s “Rating World Leaders” report revealed that Germany led both the US and China in approval ratings with 46%. This places the third largest global economy as the preferred partner in both Europe and Asia.
As the world navigates geopolitical uncertainties, the battle for global influence continues. The US and China remain at the forefront, but the future of their dominance may depend on factors beyond their immediate control, including shifting political dynamics and evolving global sentiment.
