Three West African Countries to Exit ECOWAS, Form Alliance of Sahel States
Three West African countries currently under the rule of military juntas have announced plans to exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in a further sign of fragmentation across the region.
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, all of which are ruled by military leaders that seized power in a spate of coups over the last three years, have been embroiled in fractious talks with ECOWAS over plans to return to constitutional order and hold elections.
Led by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, the regional bloc imposed punitive sanctions to push the juntas into declaring timelines on a return power to democratically elected civilian administrations, but negotiations have failed to yield substantial results.
The interim leaders of the three nations on Jan. 28 announced that they would leave ECOWAS “without delay” and join forces to form an “Alliance of Sahel States,” but the departure may not be that simple.
ECOWAS rules require a year’s written notice of intention to leave, and there is historical precedent. Mauritania left the bloc in 2000, reducing its membership to 15 countries.
Regional Disintegration Bolsters Russia
The countries with military administrations were subject to severe, nationwide economic sanctions from ECOWAS in response to the coups, rather than targeted measures against the junta leaders themselves.
Sanctions were loosened on Mali in exchange for a declaration of a timetable for return to constitutional rule, but this timetable was not being followed in Bamako.
The hardship caused by these sanctions may have helped solidify the juntas’ power and galvanize public opinion against the regional bloc.
The disintegration at a regional level is heightening geopolitical competition between Russia and the West. Russia continues to expand its political and military engagement with countries in the Sahel, which has been beset by insecurity and Islamist insurgencies for several years.
Meanwhile, the U.S. and France have been shifting focus toward bolstering militaries in coastal West African states, with an eye on the risk of insecurity spreading to democratic ally states.
Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has a well-documented presence in Mali and is believed to be seeking to establish itself in Burkina Faso, both of which alongside Niger have ousted the French military to leave a vacuum for foreign military assistance to repel jihadist threats.
However, Russian military interests may face a more complicated path to partnership with forces in Niger, given that the country still hosts a U.S. drone base.
Niger joining Mali and Burkina Faso in the breakaway group was unexpected, as negotiations in Niger had been progressing in the wake of biting sanctions, and the coup was more of an old-fashioned style palace coup rather than one driven by a deteriorating security situation.
The withdrawal of French troops and its ambassador from Niger and Burkina Faso reflects many years of mounting anger against the former colonial power.
No ‘Economic Sense’
The union of the three Sahel states and their departure from ECOWAS doesn’t make any economic sense.
All three nations are members of the largely Francophone West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and use the CFA franc currency, which is pegged to the euro, adding additional complexity to the process of collective economic separation.
Their departure will severely damage regional integration and cross-border trade, as it risks triggering an increase in tariffs and restrictions on the movement of people, goods, and financial flows.
Recalibrating economic and trade ties and infrastructure at a time when the three countries are already suffering from rampant poverty and insecurity may limit the grace period afforded the juntas by their respective populations.
A recent UN Development Programme report highlighted a growing intolerance of states that fail to deliver on their democratic promise of inclusive economic growth, improved security, and measures to curb corruption.
The three juntas were popular among their populations when they ascended to power, but this popularity is quickly degrading as populations experience a certain degree of “buyer’s remorse.”
