The European Union’s Leadership Shuffle: Key Negotiations Underway
As EU elections loom on the horizon, European diplomats are embarking on crucial negotiations that will determine the leadership of the European Union’s three major institutions: the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament.
Ursula von der Leyen’s Chances of Re-election
Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission, is expected to retain her position, according to three anonymous EU officials. They cite her strong support among European heads of state, including the pivotal role she played in breaking a stalemate during the previous negotiations.
However, French President Emmanuel Macron, who orchestrated the last round of discussions, remains noncommittal on von der Leyen’s second term. This strategic silence, according to one diplomat, allows Macron to maintain leverage in the upcoming talks. Bloomberg has reported that Macron has even floated the possibility of former ECB President Mario Draghi leading the commission, providing an alternative option.
Balancing Political Alliances
Brussels’ unwritten rule of distributing top jobs among the most voted parties will likely play a role in the selection process. While von der Leyen’s party is projected to emerge as the winner, she may have to make concessions to far-right politicians who are gaining parliamentary seats.
Top Contenders for European Council and High Representative
Assuming von der Leyen remains at the helm of the European Commission, the European Council is likely to be led by a socialist candidate. Two names being circulated are former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.
For the role of High Representative, the EU’s top diplomat, the liberal Renew group is expected to secure the position. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is viewed as a strong candidate.
Post-Election Policy Priorities
Beyond the leadership appointments, the next five years of policymaking in Brussels will focus on defense and reducing dependencies, particularly on China and, to a lesser extent, the United States. This shift signals the EU’s determination to assert its autonomy and strengthen its security.
Time of Strategic Decisions
With just over a month until the elections, the negotiations regarding the EU’s top jobs are gaining momentum. However, the final decisions will only be made after the results are known. The outcome will shape the direction of the European Union for the coming years, influencing the lives of its 450 million citizens.
Data sourced from: cnbc.com
