Uncertain Ceasefire Sends Oil Market Teetering


Energy Markets Rile Amidst Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Amidst Market Uncertainty: Crude Oil Prices Wobbling

Crude oil futures navigated a volatile session Tuesday, with prices teetering as the United States initiated efforts to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve, while uncertainties surrounding a potential ceasefire in Gaza persisted.

International benchmark Brent recorded a marginal decline of 0.20% to .16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged slightly lower by 0.13% to settle at .38 per barrel. These fluctuations marked a departure from earlier gains driven by the announcement of the US Energy Department’s bid to acquire 3.3 million barrels for reserve replenishment.

Israeli-Hamas Conflict Impacts Oil Prices

Supply Tightens as OPEC+ Maintains Cuts

The absence of any major supply disruptions from the Middle East in recent months has resulted in a relatively stable price band for oil, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth. However, the ongoing conflict remains a potent risk factor due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global transit point for crude.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a steady decline in global oil inventories, with a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day so far this year. This decline has been primarily attributed to OPEC+ adhering to its production cuts, further tightening the oil market.

Geopolitical Risks Sway Oil Market

Despite the prospect of the US withdrawing from the nuclear deal with Iran, oil prices have remained largely unaffected, largely due to the increase in global oil supply. However, any escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel could lead to a spike in prices, highlighting the delicate balance of supply and demand.

The ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also introduced uncertainty into the oil market. A ceasefire proposal accepted by Hamas has been rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who deemed it insufficient to meet Israel’s demands.

Cautious Optimism Amidst Volatility

The potential for a ceasefire in Gaza has the potential to lower oil prices, as geopolitical tensions would ease and supply concerns diminish. However, a prolonged conflict could lead to further escalation, putting upward pressure on prices.

Crude Oil Prices

Current Energy Prices at Close:

  • West Texas Intermediate (June contract): .38 per barrel, down 10 cents, or 0.13%
  • Brent (July contract): .16 per barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.20%
  • RBOB Gasoline (June contract): .54 per gallon, down 1.73%
  • Natural Gas (June contract): .21 per thousand cubic feet, up 0.55%