Amidst the escalating tensions in the Middle East, China’s muted response has inadvertently shifted the balance of power back in Washington’s favor, according to Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East & North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Diminishing Chinese Influence in the Region
“China’s role has been less significant than anticipated,” Barnes-Dacey stated on LA News Center’s “Street Signs.” “This has arguably weakened the perception of China’s growing influence and confidence in the region.”
In contrast, “the United States and Iran remain the dominant players, shaping the region’s dynamics and the security landscape, which subsequently impacts global economic and energy markets.”
China’s Lackluster Response to the Middle East Conflict
Last week, world leaders urged China to utilize its clout as a pivotal trade partner with Iran to dissuade Tehran from retaliating against Israel’s airstrike in Damascus.
Iran responded by seizing a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a barrage of drones and missiles into Israel. Despite the projectiles being mostly intercepted through the collaborative efforts of Israel, the U.S., the U.K., France, and Jordan, the threat of retaliation and a broader conflict persists.
So far, Beijing has expressed “grave concern” but has refrained from condemning Iran or playing an active mediating role.
Balancing Interests, Maintaining Neutrality
“Beijing urges the parties involved to exercise restraint to avoid further escalations,” China’s foreign ministry stated. The statement described the attacks as “the latest consequences of the Gaza conflict” and appealed to “the international community, particularly influential nations, to foster peace and stability in the region.”
However, the statement omits mention of China’s status as the primary buyer of Iran’s crude oil exports under U.S. sanctions or its membership in the China-led BRICS coalition of emerging markets.
Last year, China asserted its diplomatic influence by mediating the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, since the Gaza war’s outbreak, Beijing has not stepped up in diplomatic initiatives or addressed the escalating maritime attacks by Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi militants in the Red Sea.
“China was widely expected to assume a more assertive role in the Middle East,” Barnes-Dacey pointed out. “Nevertheless, Beijing has remained relatively inactive in regional diplomacy and security issues since the escalation of the Gaza conflict.”
Implications for U.S. Influence
- China’s restrained response has effectively bolstered the U.S.’ standing in the region.
- Washington has been able to solidify its partnerships with Israel, the U.K., France, and Jordan in countering Iran’s aggression.
- The U.S. remains a key player in shaping the region’s security dynamics and economic landscape.
Unresolved Tensions and the Path Forward
Amidst calls for calm, the threat of further escalation in the Middle East looms large. China’s passive stance has weakened the case for its growing influence and may have implications for the region’s future stability and economic prosperity.
As the conflict continues, the international community will need to navigate the delicate balance of interests and ensure a diplomatic solution to prevent further bloodshed.
Data sourced from: cnbc.com
