Introduction
Israel has declared its intention to retaliate against Iran’s massive aerial assault over the weekend. While the timing and scope of this response remain uncertain, analysts believe Israel is considering both covert and direct strikes on Iranian targets.
Iran’s Provocative Attack
On Saturday, Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles at military targets within Israel, marking an unprecedented escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. US President Joe Biden described the attack as “unprecedented.”
Israel’s Response Considerations
Israel faces a delicate balancing act as it weighs its retaliation options. A direct attack on Iranian oil facilities is unlikely, as it would antagonize international allies such as the United States. Instead, experts speculate that Israel may opt for a “covert escalation,” involving covert operations and proxy wars.
US Diplomatic Stance
President Biden has pledged unwavering support for Israel’s security against Iranian threats, but has also made it clear that the United States will not participate in offensive operations against Iran.
Iran’s Self-Defense Justification
Iran maintains that its attack on Israel was a justified response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven Iranian military personnel. Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations has cited the country’s inherent right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter.
A Longstanding Conflict
Israel and Iran have a long history of animosity, with Iran supporting groups opposed to Israel, including Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza is often seen as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Israel’s Covert Operations
Analysts believe Israel’s initial response may be proportionate, but they do not rule out the possibility of more extreme retaliation in the future, potentially targeting Iran’s nuclear capacity. Such a move could trigger severe market volatility.
Iran’s Escalation Tactics
Regardless of Israel’s response, Iran is expected to maintain pressure on the global economy. Experts predict increased harassment and disruption in key trade routes, such as the seizure of the Israeli-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Warning
Iran has indicated that its attack on Israel is over for now but has warned that any further Israeli aggression will be met with a more severe response. It also cautioned the United States to stay out of the conflict.
Conclusion
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have the potential to profoundly impact regional and global stability. While Israel contemplates its retaliation strategy, Iran continues to play a calculated game, testing the limits and provoking a response. The international community will be watching closely as this complex conflict unfolds.
Data sourced from: cnbc.com
