Despite global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the world’s reliance on coal continues to grow, largely driven by China’s relentless expansion.
China’s Coal-Fueled Growth Engine
In 2023, global coal power capacity surged by 48.4 GW, with China accounting for a staggering two-thirds of this increase. The nation’s appetite for coal has led to the construction of new plants and the slow phase-out of existing facilities.
Despite China’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2060, its coal consumption remains high. In 2023, China started building new coal-fired plants with a capacity of 70.2 GW, dwarfing the rest of the world’s combined additions of 3.7 GW.
Green Energy Stride Falls Short
While China has been a major player in renewable energy expansion, its coal consumption has outpaced its green energy progress. The country’s rapid economic growth and intermittent renewable energy sources have made coal a critical fallback option.
China’s dominance in coal reserves, coupled with its desire for energy security, has further fueled its reliance on this fossil fuel.
Global Coal Expansion Crisis
The world is facing a dire situation as coal’s dominance continues to grow. According to the IEA, global coal generation must cease by 2040 to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
To meet this goal, 126 GW of coal plant capacity needs to be shut down annually for the next 17 years. However, global coal retirements have consistently fallen short of new additions, including the record low retirements of 22.1 GW in 2023.
U.S. Coal Decline Slows
While coal’s resurgence is primarily driven by China, the U.S. has also contributed to the global increase. The slow pace of plant closures has hindered the U.S.’s transition to cleaner energy sources.
Experts attribute this slowdown to the influence of fossil fuel-friendly politicians and the significant role coal plays in certain regions of the country.
Hope Amidst the Gloom
Despite the setbacks, there are signs of hope. The U.S. and Europe are projected to accelerate plant closures in the coming years, offsetting some of China’s new capacity.
Additionally, GEM believes that China can still meet its climate targets with immediate action, including the retirement of 30 GW of coal power by 2025.
As the world grapples with the pressing climate crisis, it is crucial that nations prioritize the rapid phase-out of coal and embrace sustainable energy solutions. The consequences of inaction will be severe and far-reaching.
